UN Warns 90% Chance El Nino Strikes by August — Here's What Happens Next

The United Nations issued an urgent warning Friday that El Niño conditions have returned to the Pacific Ocean with a 90 percent probability of fully establishing by August, setting the stage for extreme weather events across six continents. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed the forecast after sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific exceeded threshold levels for the second consecutive month. Officials say the timing poses particular danger, arriving just as monsoon seasons and agricultural cycles reach critical phases worldwide.

What El Niño Means Right Now

El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise above normal for extended periods, typically lasting nine to twelve months. The phenomenon disrupts normal atmospheric circulation, fundamentally altering weather patterns from the Americas to Asia and Africa. The WMO's latest bulletin shows temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region—the key monitoring zone—have warmed to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average. That threshold matters because research shows warming above 1.5 degrees significantly increases the likelihood of extreme weather events.

"This is not a drill," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in Geneva. "We have seen the data. The patterns are establishing themselves. Governments and communities must act now to protect vulnerable populations." Saulo previously served as Argentina's national weather chief before taking the WMO leadership post earlier this year.

Regions Facing Immediate Threats

The impacts will not be uniform. South Asia is expected to see above-normal monsoon rainfall, raising flood risks across India, Bangladesh, and Nepal. The India Meteorological Department has already begun coordinating with state governments in flood-prone northern regions. Simultaneously, Australia and Indonesia are forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with drought conditions already emerging in parts of Queensland and Western Australia.

Central and South America present a stark contrast. Peru and Ecuador have declared agricultural emergencies after unusual heavy rains devastated crops and livestock in highland communities. In coastal regions, mudslides have blocked highways and damaged thousands of homes. Meanwhile, Brazil's northeast—already one of the world's most drought-prone agricultural zones—faces worsening conditions that threaten corn and soybean yields critical to global supply chains.

Africa and the Pacific Islands

Southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts on record in 2023-2024. Meteorologists now worry that El Niño could worsen food insecurity in nations already dependent on international aid. The Horn of Africa, still recovering from multi-year drought, may see below-normal rainfall during the October-to-December rainy season—directly impacting planting cycles for millions of subsistence farmers. In the Pacific Islands, elevated sea surface temperatures threaten coral bleaching events and increase the intensity of tropical cyclones that typically peak between November and April.

The Climate Context

What makes this El Niño particularly concerning is the backdrop against which it is unfolding. Global average temperatures have already risen approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That baseline warming means the climate system operates differently than it did during previous El Niño events. A moderate-strength El Niño in 2024 carries more punch than the same classification would have carried three decades ago.

The 2015-2016 El Niño, classified as "super" strength, caused an estimated $45 billion in economic damages and contributed to food crises affecting 60 million people worldwide. That event also set the stage for record global temperatures in 2016 that stood as the warmest year on record until 2023 and 2024 surpassed those figures. Climate scientists emphasize that each successive El Niño now occurs against a higher thermal baseline, compounding risks.

The Preparation Gap

The WMO's early warning systems have improved dramatically over the past two decades. Meteorologists can now predict El Niño formation months in advance with reasonable accuracy. Yet Saulo noted that prediction capability has not translated into equivalent preparation. Many vulnerable nations lack the infrastructure, funding, or institutional capacity to act on forecasts effectively.

The UN agency's director of climate services, John Nair, pointed to the paradox in a press briefing. "We can see this coming. We can tell you exactly which regions face elevated risks. The science is solid. The challenge is turning those forecasts into action on the ground before disasters strike." Nair oversees the Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to ensure every person on Earth receives protection from extreme weather by 2027—a target that currently lacks adequate funding.

What Comes Next

August will serve as a critical checkpoint. If ocean temperature anomalies persist or intensify through that month, the WMO will formally declare a fully developed El Niño episode. That designation triggers emergency protocols across UN agencies and activates pre-positioned humanitarian response plans in at-risk regions. The World Food Programme has already begun stockpiling emergency supplies in logistics hubs across Africa and Asia.

For households in vulnerable areas, experts recommend monitoring official forecasts, securing food and water reserves, and understanding local evacuation routes. In agricultural zones expecting drought, some farmers may have narrow windows to plant drought-resistant crop varieties. In flood-prone regions, authorities should clear drainage systems and ensure emergency shelters remain operational.

The next six weeks will determine whether the world catches a break or faces compounding crises. Communities that prepare now may fare far better than those caught unprepared when August arrives.