Scientists Warn El Niño Threatens Southern Africa — Crops and Water Supplies at Risk This Year

Scientists have issued an urgent warning that a strengthening El Niño weather pattern poses a serious threat to Southern Africa, with crops, water supplies, and millions of lives at risk in the coming months. The climate phenomenon, which disrupts normal rainfall patterns across the globe, is expected to bring drought conditions to much of the southern half of the continent. Aid agencies are already preparing emergency response plans as conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly through the first half of this year.

What El Niño Means for Southern Africa

El Niño is a natural warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that triggers cascading weather changes worldwide. For Southern Africa, the effects typically include reduced rainfall during the rainy season, higher daytime temperatures, and delayed planting windows for farmers. The current event is forecast to be one of the strongest in decades, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The timing could hardly be worse. Southern Africa is still recovering from back-to-back droughts that left millions food-insecure. Soils in several countries remain dry, reservoirs are below seasonal averages, and many rural communities have exhausted their grain stores. A third consecutive year of poor harvests would push emergency response capacities to the limit.

Who Faces the Greatest Risk

Parts of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, and South Africa are expected to see the most severe impacts. These nations rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, meaning even a modest reduction in seasonal rainfall can translate into failed harvests and rising food prices. The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that emergency food assistance needs could double if the El Niño pattern fully develops as predicted.

Vulnerable households in rural areas will bear the brunt. Subsistence farmers who planted early in anticipation of normal rains face the prospect of losing their entire crop. In parts of southern Zimbabwe and central Mozambique, where poverty rates exceed 70 percent, families have few alternatives when harvests fail.

Scientific Basis for the Warning

Meteorologists point to warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that have exceeded thresholds associated with strong El Niño events. Climate models used by national weather services across the region consistently show below-normal rainfall probabilities for the October-to-March growing season. Historical records indicate that similar ocean temperature patterns in 1997 and 2015 caused severe droughts across Southern Africa.

Scientists at regional climate centres in Pretoria and Nairobi have been tracking the development closely. Their reports, shared with governments and humanitarian organisations, form the basis of the preparedness efforts now underway. The models suggest the peak impact will occur between December and February, when crops require water most critically.

Governments and Aid Groups Prepare Responses

Governments across the region have begun activating drought response protocols. Zambia's Ministry of Agriculture has distributed early-maturing seed varieties to farmers in high-risk provinces, hoping to compress the growing season before dry conditions become severe. Zimbabwe's grain marketing authority has begun importing maize to build emergency reserves.

The World Food Programme has pre-positioned food stocks in strategic locations across Malawi and Mozambique. The agency estimates it will need to scale assistance to more than 10 million people if the drought materialises as forecast. Regional development banks are in discussions about releasing contingency financing for affected governments.

Funding Gaps Threaten Readiness

Humanitarian agencies warn that funding shortfalls could hamper their ability to respond quickly. The WFP's Southern Africa regional office has received less than a third of the resources it estimates will be needed for a full-scale response. donors have been slow to commit funds for a crisis that has not yet fully materialised, a pattern that often leaves aid groups racing to catch up once conditions deteriorate.

What Comes Next

The next four to six weeks will be decisive. Seasonal rainfall forecasts will become more reliable as actual precipitation data accumulates, allowing scientists to refine their predictions. Governments and aid groups say they are watching closely for signs that the drought is becoming inevitable rather than merely probable.

If current projections hold, international donors will face pressure to act before famine thresholds are reached. The African Union has called for an emergency pledging event to be held before the end of the year. Whether that meeting produces enough commitments to prevent mass hunger will depend on how sharply conditions worsen in the weeks ahead.