Pieter Geldenhuys Warns AI Could Disrupt 40% of Jobs Within a Decade

June 20, 2026 — Jennifer Walsh 3 min read

A groundbreaking report from the Instituut released this week reveals that artificial intelligence could fundamentally reshape the global labour market within ten years, with up to 40 percent of current job functions potentially automated or significantly altered. The research, led by technology strategist Pieter Geldenhuys, argues that governments and businesses cannot afford to delay workforce adaptation strategies.

Instituut's Findings on AI and Employment

The think tank's 18-month study examined automation patterns across 34 countries and 12 industry sectors. Geldenhuys presented the findings at a conference in Pretoria, where he told attendees that the pace of AI adoption has outstripped most policy frameworks designed to protect workers. "We are witnessing a transition that moves faster than anything we have seen since the industrial revolution," he stated during his remarks.

The report identifies administrative tasks, data entry, and customer service roles as the most vulnerable categories. Manufacturing positions requiring repetitive motions face near-total automation potential, according to the research. Healthcare support roles and paralegal work also appear on the high-risk list, though Geldenhuys noted that AI will more often augment these positions rather than replace them entirely.

Regional Disparities in AI Vulnerability

The impact will not be uniform across the globe. Economies heavily reliant on extractive industries and low-skill service work face steeper disruption curves, the report warns. Meanwhile, knowledge-based economies with strong educational infrastructure may adapt more readily. Geldenhuys specifically cited concerns for developing nations where educational systems have not yet incorporated digital literacy as a core competency.

Why This Report Matters Now

Instituut's research arrives as major technology companies announce significant AI integration plans for 2025. The report argues that the window for proactive policy intervention is narrowing rapidly. Geldenhuys has advocated for immediate investment in reskilling programmes, particularly targeting workers over the age of 45 who face the steepest retraining curves.

The think tank's work builds on earlier innovation studies conducted by Geldenhuys over the past decade. His technology strategy framework has been adopted by several African governments seeking to position their economies competitively in an AI-driven global market. This latest research represents the most comprehensive attempt yet to quantify the human cost of that transition.

Industry Response and Government Reaction

Technology firms have largely welcomed the report while questioning its methodology. A spokesperson for one major AI developer acknowledged that workforce transition represents a genuine challenge but argued that historical precedent suggests new job categories will emerge to offset losses. Labour unions have taken a more cautious stance, calling for regulatory frameworks that would require companies deploying AI systems to fund worker retraining initiatives.

In South Africa, the Department of Employment and Labour has indicated it will review the report's recommendations. Officials in Brussels have already begun examining similar findings from European research bodies, suggesting that cross-border policy coordination may become necessary.

What Comes Next

Geldenhuys is expected to present the full report to the United Nations technology advisory board next month. Instituut has committed to publishing quarterly updates tracking AI adoption rates and employment statistics, creating what the organisation describes as an early warning system for labour market disruption. The next installment is scheduled for March.

Watch for legislative proposals in South Korea and Singapore later this year, as both nations have signaled interest in becoming the first to implement comprehensive AI workforce adaptation laws. Whether other nations follow will depend largely on how accurately reports like Instituut's predict what is rapidly becoming the defining economic challenge of the next decade.